Hand history review QQ utg open, as an overpair OTR.
Effective stacks 92 BBs
Open UTG with QQ to 3x, flated by the BTN, Flop is 8c7c4d
Fairly standard Cbet, his PF flatting range otb contains a lot of
air, with Flush and str8 draws as well as some combo draws.
I elect to bed 2/3 pot here if there was no FD i would be betting
close to full pot here, but given there is a FD vs a fairly tagy btn
i want to dry and extract multiple streets from any hand that has SDV.
By barreling smaller I can get more value from his small overpairs 99-JJ
as well as getting some value from his combo draws 67/68/58/57/ etc
By keeping my bet sizing small here I am setting up multiple streets of value..
Also he has a low flop fold to C-bet which i think is quite important here. Whilst he
folds to cbets only 36% he raises them 14% which means that 50% of his flop range is calling IP
this is great for us as aforementioned it keeps his range uberwide.
The turn is 2d
This brings a backdoor FD and thats about it, i am not too worried about a gutter
improving to a dbl gutter, with a 15% pre flop range i dont think he ever has 5X in his
range so. Therefore the only hand that can bluff raise the turn would be top or middle pair with a FD.
Because this is such a small part of his range i think a turn barrell is profitable here. Again I want to
keep it small and elect for 3/5 psb. $2.50 into $4.35. I only have 2 hand where he has faced a dbl barrell and
as such can't make too many assumptions on his turn play however he is a 29/55 WTSD/W%SD and therefore I can
assume that his turn raises are going to be fairly strong.
He flats the turn, at this point his range is fairly well defined. I would most of the time put him on either
TPTK or an overpair, as vs a dbl barrel vs a UTG open villain is too nitty to be
flatting with air and so we can safely put him on the middle of his range.
The river is 10s,
Now I am never worried about a straight draw having got there, as I strongly believe that
96 is never in his btn calling range, it is possible that he has 9T or JT and picked up diamonds on the turn
and has now binked a pair, however I still think my read is right with him having a small overpair.
Therefore there are 6 combos of 99 and JJ and 3 combos of TT.
99 is most likely going to be taking SD and just check back if I check or fold to a bet on the river
TT is obv going to bet when checked to or raise when bet into. and JJ i would expect him to either call a bet or
bet when checked to. Therefore I elect to check, this is fairly weak and may well be a spot for thin value b/f
The main problem is that if I triple barrell here, this is a spot where I would be jamming the river as the villain.
This because even with an overpair, the UTG opener only has a bluff catcher, and the stack sizes are such that it would be a
[[pot sized shove OTR.
I think my river play here comes down to a lot of the time what level I believe my opponent thinks on.
If he has competent hand reading and believes that I am capable of folding to a shove, therefore making him more
likely to bluff the river then a check is fine. However if he is likely to check behind/flat then a bet is obv the most
optimal play.
Based on this and his fairly passive PF tendancies I think that a 1/3 -- 1/2 value bet OTR was the correct play.
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