Kyle "Folds" Poker Blog: Stability Warning

Moved up to 9 tabling 10NL now my Bankroll is more stabe which is good news. Won 2BI today which means I am now a winning player at 10NL, only took 7k hands ...... turned around my uber downswing of Saturday. Sickest thing is my red line (W$w/oSD) Is at $100....yep 10BI without showdown. It's so nice that there are so many limp call pre check fold flop at 10NL. It's making me a fortune. Ran fairly average this session, about 1/2 stack below EV but I don't mind too much. Made a pretty goofy play with A8 that I am not too happy with. Seemed like a good idea at the time. Now I am not so certain. Anyways Judge how bad it was for yourself.

***** History for hand R5-209023181-514 *****
Start hand: Wed Jan 18 19:37:21 GMT 2012
Table: Riverside [209023181] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM $0.05/$0.10, Real money)
User: the k3ym4k3r
Button: seat 6
Players in round: 8
Seat 1: UTG+1 ($11.57)
Seat 2: MP1 ($3.85)
Seat 3: MP2 ($13.80)
Seat 4: CO ($9.85)
Seat 6: BTN ($9.85)
Seat 7: SB($10.39)
Seat 8: BB (Hero) ($10.93)
Seat 9: UTG ($11.11)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to the k3ym4k3r: [As, 8d]
folds, folds, folds, folds, folds,BTN raises to $0.30, folds,Hero raises to $1.01
BTN calls $0.71
--- Dealing flop [4c, 6c, Ad]
Hero bets $0.99
BTN calls $0.99
--- Dealing turn [Kc]
Hero checks
BTN bets $2.50
Hero raises $8.93 to $8.93 [all in]
BTN turbo folds

So this guy is a spew monkey with a 55% steal from the BTN, so obv I can 3 bet A8 for value vs his stealing range as he doesn't fold often. Given that he has called down with K high on a pretty wet board in a BTN vs blind scenario I figure I don't mind playing a large pot OOP vs him. Also given my hand it reduces the Ax combo's he can have and this is good news for me :)

So OTF is a pretty standard c-bet given I catch an A. He is defo calling with any pocket pair as he is incapable of folding to 1 bet. He calls as expected and the turn is a Kc. This is a super interesting card as it is highly unlikely he is just gonna flat the flop with a FD. I expect him to raise his draws almost always (thanks poker caddy) so I figure he can't have a club. His bet vs missed turn bet is over 80% so I figure given there are so many bad rivers for me I want to take the pot down. Given he is never folding to bet I figure I can check raise to merge my range. He is still capable of calling with a Kx with a club here or a worse Ax with a club ( there aren't many though) and at the same time it is credible for him to fold A10 AJ AQ with no club etc. So I check bomb and he insta mucks.

However I am not sure this is the optimal play. I think I played it kinda bad and that it just worked out good.

This hand was kinda different. Given my reads on villain I think it was played optimally with the exception of turn bet sizing. Although it's questionable the bet was targeting his whole range including his 10x hands and his mid/large pocket pairs that may not believe. As well as obv getting action from A9/AJ.

Quoted from my 2+2 post

So my thoughts when I PSB the river:- So at 10NL the fish are pretty bad, I figure I get called by all Ax if I jam otr, of which only 3 combos I am behind too. Fairly sure OOP he is 3betting AK so I can rule that out almost certainly. Leaving A10 and A8, fairly sure he donks with these hands though. Given that and he is c/c 2 streets I figure it's most likely he is holding on with 10x or JJ/QQ. OTR I was just thinking well a PSB looks kinda bluffy. Plus I cbet like a monkey, (In these games they aren't picking up on it. Although there are a few regs who I adjust for when they are at my table) So I figure b,b,b was optimal.

CO: $13.10 (131 bb)
SB: $6.86 (68.6 bb)
BB: $9.33 (93.3 bb)
UTG+1: $8.30 (83 bb)
UTG+2: $14.98 (149.8 bb)
MP1: $3.05 (30.5 bb)
Hero (MP2): $13.97 (139.7 bb)
MP3: $9.33 (93.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A